The Energy Information Administration reports record natural gas production and record natural gas consumption. The game is all but over for fractivists.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) just released its Natural Gas Annual report and it demonstrates the game is all but over for fractivists. Natural gas production is up, natural gas consumption is up, exports have increased more than imports and Pennsylvania is setting new records. It’s just one page of good data after another.
The EIA’s 2015 Natural Gas Annual is full of fantastic data showing just how far shale revolution has taken us. For those of us too close to the trees to see the forest, it’s one big eye-opener. Take the data on natural gas production from shale gas wells, for example.
Natural gas production from shale wells in the US has increased by 82% over five short years. Moreover, shale production as a share of total natural gas production has grown from 30% to 47%. That’s a revolution. Total natural gas production has grown by 16% over the same period. Natural gas consumption, while it didn’t quite pace production (hence the price declines) was also up a healthy 12%.
Comparing these two charts, it becomes quite obvious why fractivists are putting so much effort into stopping pipelines. They view stopping the flow as the only way to choke off the revolution. They aim to keep prices so low as to be unprofitable, but industry innovation is constantly lowering the production cost per cubic foot of gas. They can’t win.
They’re also losing in another way. We are increasing exports faster while imports decline.
Yes, imports are down 22% and exports are up 18% since 2011. This positive set of trends can be expected to continue as more Marcellus Shale and other LNG makes it’s way to Europe. Most of those imports, come from Canada, which is a favored trading partner, but the imports from places such as Trinidad, Tobago and Yemen are only sustained by the obstinacy of politically correct New York and New England pols. They’d rather Boston would be dependent on foreign sources of gas than have an innocuous pipeline or two. Such is the idiocy of Northeast politics. This imports map from EIA explains:
One really cold winter in the Northeast when there are both natural gas and propane shortages and spot prices spike to new highs is likely to change that, too. Pols now demagoguing against pipelines will quickly pivot, of course, and blame someone else. That’s the way of Northeast politics, after all. Meanwhile, though, the data speaks for itself. The shale revolution has conquered. Fractivism might as well be dead.